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  "limitations": [
    "Exact-name model identity only; no substituted snapshots or new aliases.",
    "No new papers or post-freeze model entrants.",
    "Scores are current rounded CSV point estimates; no Bayesian posterior propagated.",
    "Common-roster comparison excludes missing original models symmetrically from old/new frontier selection.",
    "Original first-of-month frontier convention retained, including potential negative gaps within release months.",
    "Historical-date arm retains documented o3 Dec20 announcement date; corrected arm uses Apr16 public release for both fits and imputed-date clipping."
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  "analysis_date": "2026-11-04",
  "sources": {
    "eci": "https://epoch.ai/data/eci_scores.csv",
    "methodology": "https://epoch.ai/publications/eci-bayesian-methodology",
    "original_paper": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.04135",
    "o3_release": "https://openai.com/index/introducing-o3-and-o4-mini/"
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}